For a particular team, say Juventus, I compiled the number of shot they conceded in every Serie A game last season. The number of shots was then divided by the amount of the possession that the opponent enjoyed in that match. This method is to calculate how efficient an opponent could generate a scoring opportunity with a given amount of possession. I then calculated the average opponent’ shots generation efficiency f the matches a particular player started (substitution is ignored since it has a minor contribution). For example, Juventus lineups featuring Leonardo Bonucci conceded 12.4 shots per 50% possession.
Each player played against opponents with different strengths, so I needed a way to normalize the strengths of the different opponents each player played against.
Because there is a high correlation (r=0.74) between the number of points a team accumulated in the league and its shots generation efficiency, I used a linear regression method to model the shots generation efficiency for opponents of different strength (measured by points):
For example, the model suggests that for any opponent: (the average # of points of the opponents) x 0.0605+10.039 = the expected number of shots an opponent would generate per 50% possession. For Bonucci, his opponent averages 51.27 points, so the expected number of shots is 13.1 per 50% possession.
By dividing the actual number of shot conceded (12.4) with the expected number of shot conceded (13.1), I generated the defensive performance of the lineups featuring Bonucci, which is about 94%, meaning that an opponent created 6% fewer shot than they would usually create.
The process was repeated for every defender for every team in Serie A last season. I also calculated the shot generation efficiency for the lineups when a particular WAS NOT PRESENT. For example, Juventus’ lineups not featuring Bonucci limited the opponent shot generation by 36%. Therefore, the plus/minus for Bonucci is +0.3 (or +30%), meaning that the opponents had 30% more shots per possession against the lineups with Bonucci than those without him.
Center backs
| Team | Player | Position | Opponent’s shooting% when X player is playing | Opponent’s strength when X player is playing | Opponent’s shooting % when X player is not playing | Opponent’s strength when X player is not playing | Opponent’s shooting plus/minus |
| Udinese | Wague | CB | 0.64 | 55.5 | 0.81 | 53.18 | 0.17 |
| Juventus | Rugani | CB | 0.68 | 42.91 | 0.91 | 54.3 | 0.24 |
| Juventus | Barzagli | CB | 0.70 | 47.25 | 0.96 | 53.73 | 0.27 |
| Genoa | Biraschi | CB | 0.76 | 57 | 0.95 | 53.53 | 0.19 |
| Udinese | Felipe | CB | 0.78 | 56.36 | 0.82 | 49.375 | 0.04 |
| Atalanta | Masiello | CB | 0.78 | 52.21 | 0.97 | 50.6 | 0.19 |
| Udinese | Danilo | CB | 0.78 | 53.72 | 0.97 | 48 | 0.18 |
| Lazio | de Vrij | CB | 0.79 | 51.26 | 1.03 | 54.18 | 0.23 |
| Atalanta | Caldara | CB | 0.80 | 54.1 | 0.82 | 44.125 | 0.02 |
| Torino | Carlao | CB | 0.81 | 53.75 | 1.10 | 52.91 | 0.29 |
| Crotone | Dussenne | CB | 0.81 | 69.25 | 0.91 | 52.21 | -0.10 |
| Atalanta | Toloi | CB | 0.82 | 54.34 | 0.75 | 39.5 | -0.06 |
| Juventus | Chiellini | CB | 0.83 | 59.9 | 0.87 | 41.11 | 0.04 |
| Lazio | Wallace | CB | 0.84 | 55.11 | 0.89 | 49.4 | 0.05 |
| Roma | Jesus | CB | 0.86 | 40 | 1.18 | 52.53 | 0.32 |
| Atalanta | Zukanovic | CB | 0.86 | 45.58 | 0.78 | 54.96 | -0.07 |
| Sampdoria | Regini | CB | 0.86 | 63.67 | 1.06 | 52.37 | 0.19 |
| Udinese | Angella | CB | 0.86 | 38.8 | 0.77 | 57.79 | -0.09 |
| Lazio | Bastos | CB | 0.88 | 61.1 | 0.85 | 48.89 | -0.02 |
| Genoa | Izzo | CB | 0.89 | 48.58 | 1.02 | 65.42 | 0.13 |
| Lazio | Hoedt | CB | 0.89 | 45.76 | 0.82 | 59.94 | -0.07 |
| Genoa | Munoz | CB | 0.90 | 57.96 | 0.80 | 46.93 | -0.10 |
| Inter | Murillo | CB | 0.90 | 52.5 | 0.99 | 52.55 | 0.08 |
| Genoa | Gentiletti | CB | 0.90 | 58.47 | 0.95 | 50.91 | 0.04 |
| Crotone | Ceccherini | CB | 0.91 | 51.29 | 0.86 | 77 | 0.04 |
| Crotone | Ferrari | CB | 0.91 | 54.19 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Juventus | Benatia | CB | 0.91 | 50.57 | 0.84 | 51.25 | -0.07 |
| Genoa | Burdisso | CB | 0.92 | 53.49 | 1.09 | 58.67 | 0.17 |
| Inter | Miranda | CB | 0.94 | 50.72 | 1.01 | 62.17 | 0.07 |
| Juventus | Bonucci | CB | 0.94 | 51.27 | 0.64 | 50.42 | -0.30 |
| Torino | Bovo | CB | 0.94 | 48.33 | 1.08 | 53.4 | 0.14 |
| Bologna | Gastaldello | CB | 0.95 | 51.25 | 1.13 | 57.7 | 0.18 |
| Lazio | Radu | CB | 0.95 | 57.54 | 0.81 | 49.28 | -0.14 |
| Bologna | Maietta | CB | 0.95 | 50.53 | 1.24 | 65.25 | 0.29 |
| Genoa | Orban | CB | 0.95 | 49.29 | 0.93 | 54.94 | 0.03 |
| Inter | Ranocchia | CB | 0.97 | 52.8 | 0.94 | 52.48 | -0.02 |
| Napoli | Albiol | CB | 0.98 | 54.68 | 1.07 | 44.69 | 0.08 |
| Palermo | Andjelkovic | CB | 0.99 | 57.45 | 1.06 | 51.06 | 0.08 |
| Napoli | Koulibaly | CB | 0.99 | 52.57 | 1.07 | 47.6 | 0.08 |
| Sassuolo | Cannavaro | CB | 0.99 | 54.94 | 1.18 | 51.81 | 0.19 |
| Inter | Medel | CB | 0.99 | 54.5625 | 0.91 | 51.05 | -0.08 |
| Palermo | Cionek | CB | 1.00 | 48.88 | 1.07 | 65.08 | 0.08 |
| Palermo | Gonzalez | CB | 1.01 | 52 | 0.98 | 56.38 | -0.03 |
| Palermo | Goldangia | CB | 1.02 | 56.08 | 1.06 | 50.83 | 0.04 |
| Sampdoria | Silvestre | CB | 1.02 | 54.14 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Chievo | Cesar | CB | 1.03 | 57.12 | 1.10 | 50.62 | 0.08 |
| Bologna | Helander | CB | 1.03 | 55.38 | 1.00 | 53.17 | -0.02 |
| Crotone | Claiton | CB | 1.03 | 54.56 | 0.87 | 52.68 | 0.16 |
| Cagliari | Pisacane | CB | 1.03 | 53.45 | 1.20 | 53.26 | 0.17 |
| Napoli | Chiriches | CB | 1.04 | 46.08 | 1.00 | 53.96 | -0.04 |
| Pescara | Fornasier | CB | 1.04 | 45.4375 | 1.13 | 61.95 | 0.09 |
| Udinese | Heurtaux | CB | 1.04 | 78.33 | 0.77 | 51.29 | -0.27 |
| Chievo | Spolli | CB | 1.04 | 53.86 | 1.08 | 53.33 | 0.04 |
| Sampdoria | Skiniar | CB | 1.06 | 52.37 | 0.86 | 63.67 | -0.19 |
| Pescara | Campagnaro | CB | 1.06 | 52.67 | 1.11 | 57.1 | 0.05 |
| Torino | Rossettini | CB | 1.06 | 55.62 | 1.09 | 44.56 | 0.03 |
| Fiorentina | Tomovic | CB | 1.07 | 55.74 | 1.15 | 49.53 | 0.08 |
| Chievo | Gamberini | CB | 1.08 | 53.75 | 1.07 | 53.28 | -0.01 |
| Pescara | Gyomber | CB | 1.08 | 54.5 | 1.09 | 54.9 | 0.01 |
| Fiorentina | Maio | CB | 1.08 | 53.67 | 1.11 | 52.4375 | 0.03 |
| Torino | Castan | CB | 1.08 | 52.85 | 1.08 | 53.08 | 0.00 |
| Fiorentina | Sanchez | CB | 1.09 | 52.58 | 1.14 | 52.22 | 0.05 |
| Fiorentina | Astori | CB | 1.09 | 52.79 | 1.21 | 51.6 | 0.12 |
| Napoli | Tonelli | CB | 1.09 | 42 | 1.00 | 52.06 | -0.09 |
| Sassuolo | Acerbi | CB | 1.10 | 53.2 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Empoli | Veseli | CB | 1.10 | 54 | 1.16 | 54.11 | 0.06 |
| AC Milan | Romagnoli | CB | 1.10 | 51.31 | 1.19 | 53.73 | 0.08 |
| Chievo | Dainelli | CB | 1.11 | 50.72 | 1.00 | 58.92 | -0.11 |
| Torino | Moretti | CB | 1.11 | 52.68 | 1.02 | 53.4375 | -0.08 |
| Empoli | Costa | CB | 1.11 | 52.09 | 1.22 | 57.2 | 0.12 |
| Napoli | Maksimovic | CB | 1.11 | 47.43 | 0.99 | 52.13 | -0.12 |
| Sassuolo | Peluso | CB | 1.12 | 57.25 | 1.10 | 52.21 | -0.02 |
| AC Milan | Paletta | CB | 1.12 | 52.34 | 1.18 | 53.17 | 0.05 |
| Roma | Manolas | CB | 1.13 | 53.375 | 1.28 | 39.67 | 0.16 |
| Empoli | Bellusci | CB | 1.13 | 55.28 | 1.30 | 47.83 | 0.17 |
| Fiorentina | Salcedo | CB | 1.13 | 46.83 | 1.09 | 53.7185 | -0.04 |
| Roma | Fazio | CB | 1.13 | 51.6 | 1.38 | 46.67 | 0.24 |
| Sassuolo | Antei | CB | 1.14 | 51.67 | 1.09 | 53.69 | -0.05 |
| Empoli | Barba | CB | 1.15 | 55.56 | 1.15 | 53.66 | 0.00 |
| Pescara | Stendardo | CB | 1.15 | 54.33 | 1.07 | 55.21 | -0.08 |
| AC Milan | Zapata | CB | 1.15 | 48.7 | 1.12 | 53.82 | -0.03 |
| Cagliari | Ceppitelli | CB | 1.15 | 53.83 | 1.14 | 52.85 | -0.01 |
| Pescara | Bovo | CB | 1.16 | 49.67 | 1.07 | 56.67 | -0.08 |
| Roma | Rudiger | CB | 1.16 | 43.5 | 1.15 | 54.77 | -0.01 |
| Cagliari | Alves | CB | 1.16 | 53.53 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Pescara | Coda | CB | 1.17 | 61.3 | 1.06 | 52.75 | -0.11 |
| Fiorentina | Rodriguez | CB | 1.17 | 54.52 | 0.93 | 48 | -0.24 |
| Bologna | Oikonomou | CB | 1.18 | 59.45 | 0.95 | 51.26 | -0.24 |
| Palermo | Rajkovic | CB | 1.20 | 58 | 1.00 | 54 | -0.19 |
| AC Milan | Gomez | CB | 1.22 | 61.5 | 1.11 | 50.42 | -0.12 |
| Palermo | Vitiello | CB | 1.25 | 52 | 0.99 | 54.79 | -0.27 |
| Bologna | Torosidis | CB | 1.26 | 62.25 | 0.99 | 52.62 | -0.28 |
| Cagliari | Salamon | CB | 1.29 | 52.11 | 1.11 | 53.69 | -0.18 |
| Sassuolo | Letschert | CB | 1.33 | 42 | 1.06 | 55.3125 | -0.28 |
| Roma | Vermaelen | CB | 1.36 | 45.75 | 1.14 | 51.85 | -0.22 |
| Empoli | Cosic | CB | 1.39 | 52.625 | 1.09 | 54.5 | -0.30 |
Full backs
| Team | Player | Position | Opponent’s shooting% when X player is playing | Opponent’s strength when X player is playing | Opponent’s shooting % when X player is not playing | Opponent’s strength when X player is not playing | Opponent’s shooting plus/minus |
| Udinese | Faraoni | FB | 0.70 | 57.5 | 0.81 | 52.94 | 0.10 |
| Udinese | Heurtaux | FB | 0.72 | 59.67 | 0.80 | 52.89 | 0.08 |
| Napoli | Maggio | FB | 0.74 | 59 | 1.04 | 50.35 | 0.30 |
| Juventus | Dani Alves | FB | 0.75 | 46.42 | 0.89 | 53.12 | 0.15 |
| Udinese | Felipe | FB | 0.75 | 48.89 | 0.81 | 54.83 | 0.05 |
| Lazio | Radu | FB | 0.76 | 47.625 | 0.93 | 55.36 | 0.16 |
| Atalanta | Drame | FB | 0.76 | 48.625 | 0.82 | 52.9 | 0.05 |
| Udinese | Samir | FB | 0.78 | 51.53 | 0.81 | 55.32 | 0.03 |
| Lazio | Anderson | FB | 0.78 | 50.125 | 0.88 | 52.63 | 0.10 |
| Atalanta | Spinazzola | FB | 0.79 | 52.19 | 0.83 | 51.58 | 0.04 |
| Udinese | Widmer | FB | 0.80 | 51 | 0.79 | 59.36 | -0.01 |
| Atalanta | Conti | FB | 0.82 | 52.7 | 0.75 | 44 | -0.07 |
| Udinese | Adnan | FB | 0.83 | 63.125 | 0.78 | 50.68 | -0.04 |
| Lazio | Basta | FB | 0.83 | 52.22 | 0.90 | 51.93 | 0.07 |
| Inter | Candreva | FB | 0.84 | 59.83 | 0.97 | 51.16 | 0.13 |
| Juventus | Alex Sandro | FB | 0.85 | 51.875 | 0.85 | 49.5 | 0.00 |
| Genoa | Lazovic | FB | 0.85 | 56.04 | 1.15 | 47.9 | 0.30 |
| Torino | Avelar | FB | 0.87 | 42.33 | 0.99 | 53.91 | 0.13 |
| Juventus | Asamoah | FB | 0.87 | 50 | 0.84 | 51.46 | -0.04 |
| Crotone | Martella | FB | 0.88 | 50.31 | 0.95 | 62 | -0.07 |
| Roma | Rui | FB | 0.88 | 43.33 | 1.17 | 51.89 | 0.29 |
| Juventus | Cuadrado | FB | 0.89 | 46.67 | 0.85 | 51.37 | -0.04 |
| Crotone | Sampirisi | FB | 0.90 | 58.22 | 0.90 | 52.69 | -0.01 |
| Sassuolo | Letschert | FB | 0.90 | 64.33 | 1.11 | 52.56 | 0.22 |
| Crotone | Rosi | FB | 0.90 | 53.39 | 0.92 | 56.71 | -0.02 |
| Lazio | Lulic | FB | 0.90 | 51.36 | 0.84 | 52.41 | -0.06 |
| Torino | Monlinaro | FB | 0.90 | 59.625 | 1.01 | 51.23 | 0.10 |
| Juventus | Lichtsteiner | FB | 0.91 | 53.55 | 0.76 | 47.5 | -0.15 |
| Inter | D’Ambrosio | FB | 0.92 | 56.82 | 0.97 | 52.48 | 0.05 |
| Inter | Ansaldi | FB | 0.93 | 54.76 | 0.90 | 50.71 | -0.03 |
| Lazio | Lukaku | FB | 0.94 | 63 | 0.84 | 49.2 | -0.10 |
| Genoa | Laxalt | FB | 0.95 | 53.98 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sampdoria | Sala | FB | 0.95 | 51.2 | 1.12 | 55.32 | 0.17 |
| Palermo | Morganella | FB | 0.96 | 64.4 | 1.04 | 52.16 | 0.08 |
| Empoli | Zambelli | FB | 0.97 | 60.5 | 1.18 | 53.35 | 0.21 |
| Sampdoria | Pavlovic | FB | 0.98 | 51.625 | 1.06 | 53.7 | 0.08 |
| Chievo | Gobbi | FB | 0.99 | 53.57 | 1.36 | 53.375 | 0.37 |
| Bologna | Torosidis | FB | 0.99 | 49.4 | 1.05 | 58.33 | 0.06 |
| Bologna | Masina | FB | 1.00 | 53.11 | 1.08 | 51 | 0.08 |
| Pescara | Crescenzi | FB | 1.00 | 55.08 | 1.12 | 54.44 | 0.12 |
| Inter | Santon | FB | 1.00 | 53.54 | 0.92 | 54 | -0.08 |
| Inter | Nagomoto | FB | 1.00 | 51.5 | 0.94 | 52.72 | -0.07 |
| Crotone | Mesbah | FB | 1.01 | 63 | 0.87 | 51.6 | 0.13 |
| Fiorentina | Olivera | FB | 1.01 | 55.07 | 1.16 | 51.21 | 0.15 |
| Napoli | Strinic | FB | 1.01 | 55.92 | 1.01 | 41.17 | 0.00 |
| Napoli | Ghoulam | FB | 1.01 | 41.17 | 1.01 | 55.92 | 0.00 |
| Sampdoria | Pereira | FB | 1.01 | 54.375 | 1.05 | 52.97 | 0.04 |
| Palermo | Pezzella | FB | 1.01 | 57.25 | 1.03 | 53.67 | 0.01 |
| Sampdoria | Regini | FB | 1.01 | 53.37 | 1.09 | 53.25 | 0.08 |
| Palermo | Rispoli | FB | 1.02 | 52.4 | 1.03 | 62 | 0.01 |
| Lazio | Patric | FB | 1.02 | 52.7 | 0.80 | 51.89 | -0.22 |
| Sassuolo | Adjapong | FB | 1.03 | 54.67 | 1.10 | 53.09 | 0.08 |
| Bologna | Mbaye | FB | 1.04 | 57.55 | 1.01 | 52.04 | -0.02 |
| Chievo | Cacciatore | FB | 1.04 | 56 | 1.15 | 46.6 | 0.12 |
| Napoli | Hysaj | FB | 1.04 | 50.35 | 0.74 | 59 | -0.30 |
| Palermo | Alessami | FB | 1.04 | 53.86 | 0.96 | 56 | -0.08 |
| Torino | Silvestri | FB | 1.06 | 53.07 | 1.08 | 52.96 | 0.02 |
| Sassuolo | Gazzola | FB | 1.07 | 50.67 | 1.11 | 54.87 | 0.04 |
| Fiorentina | Salcedo | FB | 1.07 | 52.43 | 1.11 | 52.68 | 0.04 |
| AC Milan | De Sciglio | FB | 1.08 | 53.56 | 1.22 | 50.8 | 0.14 |
| Roma | Rudiger | FB | 1.08 | 60.15 | 1.19 | 46.56 | 0.12 |
| Torino | Zappacosta | FB | 1.08 | 52.96 | 1.06 | 53.07 | -0.02 |
| Bologna | Krafth | FB | 1.08 | 57.12 | 0.97 | 50.81 | -0.11 |
| Empoli | Laurini | FB | 1.09 | 52.08 | 1.27 | 57.57 | 0.18 |
| Sassuolo | Dell’Orco | FB | 1.09 | 62.875 | 1.10 | 50.63 | 0.01 |
| Fiorentina | Tello | FB | 1.09 | 44.25 | 1.12 | 58.73 | 0.03 |
| AC Milan | Abate | FB | 1.09 | 54.11 | 1.17 | 51 | 0.08 |
| Empoli | Pasqual | FB | 1.10 | 52.97 | 1.42 | 60.17 | 0.32 |
| Sassuolo | Peluso | FB | 1.10 | 50.21 | 1.08 | 62.89 | -0.02 |
| Pescara | Zampano | FB | 1.10 | 55.54 | 1.05 | 53.5 | -0.05 |
| Pescara | Biraghi | FB | 1.11 | 53.03125 | 1.00 | 62 | -0.11 |
| Roma | Emerson | FB | 1.11 | 49.29 | 1.18 | 52.39 | 0.07 |
| Fiorentina | Chiesa | FB | 1.12 | 55.75 | 1.10 | 51.19 | -0.02 |
| Cagliari | Murru | FB | 1.13 | 55.35 | 1.18 | 48.92 | 0.05 |
| Roma | Jesus | FB | 1.14 | 58.375 | 1.15 | 49.3 | 0.02 |
| Torino | Barreca | FB | 1.14 | 52.22 | 0.82 | 54.91 | -0.32 |
| Cagliari | Isla | FB | 1.15 | 49.4 | 1.15 | 57.67 | 0.01 |
| Fiorentina | Milic | FB | 1.15 | 51.2 | 1.08 | 53.57 | -0.08 |
| Cagliari | Padoin | FB | 1.16 | 53.5 | 1.15 | 51.75 | 0.00 |
| Cagliari | Pisacane | FB | 1.17 | 52.56 | 1.14 | 54 | -0.04 |
| Genoa | Edenilson | FB | 1.18 | 46.375 | 0.87 | 55.9 | -0.31 |
| Sassuolo | Lirola | FB | 1.19 | 51.59 | 1.03 | 54.52 | -0.16 |
| Cagliari | Capuano | FB | 1.19 | 56.25 | 1.14 | 52.97 | -0.05 |
| AC Milan | Calabria | FB | 1.20 | 48.45 | 1.10 | 54.11 | -0.09 |
| Cagliari | Bittante | FB | 1.20 | 68 | 1.14 | 52.06 | -0.06 |
| Sampdoria | Bereszynski | FB | 1.21 | 56 | 0.97 | 52.15 | -0.24 |
| Roma | Peres | FB | 1.22 | 46 | 1.14 | 56 | -0.07 |
| Chievo | Frey | FB | 1.24 | 44.54 | 0.98 | 58.2 | -0.26 |
| AC Milan | Vangioni | FB | 1.25 | 47.55 | 1.08 | 54.48 | -0.17 |
| Fiorentina | Bernardeschi | FB | 1.26 | 65.17 | 1.07 | 50.28125 | -0.19 |
| AC Milan | Antonelli | FB | 1.29 | 56.67 | 1.12 | 52.11 | -0.17 |
| Sampdoria | Dodo | FB | 1.33 | 56.5 | 1.01 | 52.88 | -0.32 |
| Empoli | Veseli | FB | 1.39 | 55.375 | 1.09 | 53.77 | -0.30 |
| Roma | Florenzi | FB | 1.40 | 53.86 | 1.09 | 50.61 | -0.31 |
| Empoli | Dimarco | FB | 1.42 | 60.17 | 1.10 | 52.97 | -0.32 |
